Coronavirus continues to cause havoc globally and in Australia - but here are five reasons for optimism

It seems the bad news on coronavirus doesn’t let up. The lockdown in NSW looks like going longer.

Read More

Seven key charts for investors to watch - where are they now?

In January for investors to watch as being critical to the investment outlook this year. Put simply, where are they now?

Read More

Oliver's Insights - put the latest worry list in context

Five ways to turn down the noise and stay focused as an investor

Read More

Oliver's Insights - 2020-21 saw investment returns rebound – expect more modest but still good returns this financial year

The past financial year saw a spectacular rebound in returns for investors as the focus shifted from the recession to recovery against a backdrop of policy stimulus and vaccines. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the outlook.

Read More

Oliver's Insights - The never-ending coronavirus pandemic – why snap lockdowns in Australia make sense until herd immunity is reached.

News that I and many others were effectively in lockdown from Friday was depressing. It got even more depressing when the whole of Sydney and surrounds was put into a two-week lockdown on Saturday.

Read More

Oliver's Insights - Are central banks heading towards the easing exits

The drumbeat of central banks heading towards the exits from ultra-easy monetary policy is getting louder

Read More

Oliver's Insights - Inflation – why it matters for investment markets

The shift from high inflation to low inflation has been a key tailwind for investment returns over the last 40 years – in particular it has allowed capital growth in excess of growth in earnings and rents

Read More

Olivers Insights - Optimistic March quarter

The Australian economic recovery remained strong in the March quarter with GDP up 1.8% – seven reasons for optimism

Read More

Oliver's Insights - Inflation Q&A – should we be worried about higher inflation?

Inflation will likely rise further in the months ahead due to base effects, bottlenecks & reopening but it’s likely to fall back again from later this year as these drivers fade.

Read More

Big-spending Federal Budget set to spur on the recovery

The 2021 Federal Budget harks back to the immediate post GFC budgets in some ways, with the Treasurer resisting any temptation to start early on the task of budget repair and doubling down on stimulus.

Read More

Olivers Insights - The 2021-22 Australian Budget – spending the growth windfall to further grow the economy towards full employment

The Government now expects the Federal budget deficit to peak at $161bn this financial year (down from $214bn in October’s Budget) and fall to $107bn in 2021-22.

Read More

Oliver's Insights - The return of geopolitical risk? – what to watch over the remainder of 2021

Geopolitical risks are higher than prior to the GFC reflecting three big themes: a populist backlash against economic rationalist policies; the falling relative power of the US; and the polarising impact of social media.

Read More

Olivers Insights - Three reasons why the long-term bull market in Australian house prices may be getting close to the end

The Australian housing market is booming. Prices are rising sharply, auction clearance rates are very strong, sales are surging, and housing finance is around record highs.

Read More

Oliver's Insights - The importance of starting point valuations for investment returns – and where are we now?

It makes sense that the cheaper you buy an asset the higher its prospective return will be. However, this is frequently forgotten with investors often tempted to project recent returns into the future regardless of valuations.

Read More

Oliver's Insights - Market outlook Q&A – global recovery, vaccines, inflation, the risk of a share crash, Aust house prices and other issues

Global recovery is on track. Vaccines are working. JobKeeper’s end won’t derail Australia’s recovery. Inflation could become an issue in the medium term. Shares are at risk of a correction but are supported by economic and earnings recovery.

Read More

Oliver's Insights - RBA on hold and likely to remain easy for a long while yet

RBA on hold and likely to remain easy for a long while yet as full employment gets more of a look in. While the economy is recovering faster than expected. The RBA will likely start to slow its quantitative easing measures through this year though.

Read More

Oliver's Insights - Shares have had a very strong rebound since March last year so where are we in the investment cycle?

The history of cyclical bull markets in shares suggests that the rebound since last March still has a way to go.

Read More

Oliver's Insights - Bitcoin – it’s not a currency, it’s not a capital asset… so what is it?

Digital currencies and blockchain technology may have a lot to offer - but that does not mean Bitcoin will be it.

Read More

Oliver's Insights -The bond crash of 2021? Seven things for investors to consider

The 40-year downtrend in inflation and bond yields is likely over. But the fundamental backdrop of improving growth, rising profits and still low rates supports the case for solid 6-12 month returns from shares

Read More

Olivers Insights - Australian house prices on the upswing again – seven things to bear in mind about the Australian property market

Expect average Australian home prices to rise 5-10% this year and next as ultra-low interest rates and economic recovery feed through. However, the outlook is divergent...

Read More

Six key things to know about super in 2021

The super rules change regularly, and this year is no exception.

Read More

Oliver's Insights - Nine common mistakes investors make

Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong.

Read More

Capital Edition Jan/Feb 2021

Will Airports ever be the same, Real estate rock stars, USA Game changing year and the face of front line responders

Read More

Olivers Insights - Seven key charts for investors to watch regarding the global economy and investment markets this year.

Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation, but investment markets should provide solid returns this year on the back of continuing economic recovery and low interest rates.

Read More

Oliver's Insights - Seven key charts for investors to watch regarding the global economy and investment markets this year

Our high-level investment view is that while shares are vulnerable to a short term correction having run up hard since early November, overall investment returns will be solid this year on the back of economic recovery (driven by stimulus and the deployment of vaccines allowing a more sustained reopening) at the same time that interest rates remain low.

Read More

Oliver's Insights - US political protests, inflation and rising bond yields

US protests are only an issue for investment markets if they significantly impact economic activity

Read More

Olivers Insights - 2021 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2020 turned out far better for investors than was feared. 2021 is expected to provide solid returns & see a further rotation from pandemic winners to cyclical investments.

Read More

Oliver's Insights - from pandemic to recovery

Review of 2020, not what it was supposed to be - Outlook for 2021 - Recovery

Read More

Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree?

For some years now Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has been gaining prominence as a solution to the perceived failure of traditional economic policies to achieve full employment & meet inflation targets, despite at or near zero interest rates.

Read More

Olivers Insight's - Joe Biden on track to become US president. Implications for investors and Australia

The US election has been close and final counting as well as legal challenges could still upset the result, but the now highly likely outcome is a Biden Presidency.

Read More

Olivers Insights - RBA cuts rates to just 0.1% and ramps up quantitative easing – but will it work?

The RBA has cut the cash rate to a record low 0.1% & announced a broad-based quantitative easing program.

Read More

Expect slower medium-term returns

Despite a 35% or so plunge in share markets earlier this year; on the back of the pandemic and rough patches in 2018, 2015 and 2011, well diversified Australian investors have seen pretty good returns over the last 10 years. The median balanced growth superannuation fund returned 5.8% pa over the five years to August and 7.3% pa over 10 years and that’s after fees and taxes. While that’s dull compared to the double digit returns of the higher inflation world of the 1980s and 1990s, it’s pretty good once low inflation of 2% pa or less is allowed for.

Read More

Federal Budget 2020-2021

The 2020-21 Australian Budget – spend, spend, spend as the focus remains on recovery and jobs, jobs, jobs

Read More

Olivers Insight's Sep 22

Australia’s “eye popping” budget deficit and public debt blow out – can it be paid off? Does it matter?

Read More

Load more

Planning your future